GC-contenders Tour de France 2025

After the Critérium du Dauphiné and a strong start to the 2025 season, the Tour de France looks set for a familiar battle: Tadej Pogačar versus Jonas Vingegaard.
They’ve shared the spoils at the past five Tours, but that’s just the theory. Three weeks in France can throw up all kinds of surprises.
That’s why Alpecin Cycling has picked out the GC contenders with the talent to aim for the podium – or to sneak into the top five or ten.

Tadej Pogačar / UAE Team Emirates-XRG / 26 years

Tour participations: 5
Top-results: 1st (2020, 2021, 2024), 2nd (2022 & 2023)

Tadej Pogačar lines up for the 2025 Tour de France as the outright favourite. The 26-year-old Slovenian from UAE Team Emirates-XRG is fresh off a historic 2024 season and an impressive run of form in the first half of 2025. Last year, he not only claimed a third Tour title, but also pulled off the rare Giro–Tour double – and added a world championship to top it all off.

This year, Pogačar is showing no signs of letting up. He’s won six of his nine races so far – including two Monuments – and has never finished off the podium.

His performance at the Critérium du Dauphiné was particularly commanding. He took three stage wins and looked a level above rivals like Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. He only went all-in once in the mountains – the rest he simply controlled. The only real question mark remains the time trial, where he had an off-day.

Now, Pogačar is fine-tuning his form at altitude in Isola 2000 – alongside most of his teammates. And what a squad it is: with João Almeida, Adam Yates and others by his side, Pogačar may well be backed by the strongest team in the race.

Jonas Vingegaard / Team Visma – Lease a Bike / 28 years

Tour participations: 4
Top-results: 1st (2022 & 2023), 2nd (2021 & 2024)

Jonas Vingegaard remains the biggest threat to Tadej Pogačar’s yellow jersey ambitions. But the two-time Tour de France winner from Denmark has had a far bumpier start to the season. After crashing at Paris–Nice in March – suffering a concussion that was initially missed – he was sidelined for an extended spell and has only ridden the Critérium du Dauphiné since.

His team talked up his form, promising to unveil the strongest version of Vingegaard yet. But in the race, the Dane was no match for Pogačar. Granted, the Dauphiné climbs were shorter than what awaits at the Tour, and the event itself just a one-week test. Still, Vingegaard appeared fatigued by the end.

His one standout ride came in the time trial, where he finished second to Remco Evenepoel. The silver lining? He now knows precisely where he needs to improve during altitude training in Tignes to close the gap.

Vingegaard and his team will likely put all their chips on the final week of the Tour – banking on his exceptional powers of recovery and hoping that’s when he comes into his own.

Remco Evenepoel / Soudal Quick-Step / 25 years

Tour participations: 1
Top-results: 3rd (2024)

Of last year’s Tour de France podium finishers, Remco Evenepoel had by far the most difficult spring. The 25-year-old Belgian needed weeks to recover from a crash involving a postal van and has only shown glimpses of his top form in 2025. That said, he also found another gear between the Dauphiné and the Tour last year – and could well do so again.

At the Dauphiné, Evenepoel delivered a strong time trial but struggled to keep pace in the mountains, falling behind both Pogačar and Vingegaard. He even lost ground to emerging GC talents like Florian Lipowitz and Tobias Halland Andresen. Evenepoel has hinted that allergies may have played a role – and he’ll hope the extra time between races will help him hit peak condition.

What’s more concerning is the loss of key climbing support: both Mikel Landa and Louis Vervaeke are out. With them, he loses crucial firepower – especially considering how strong Landa was in the closing week of last year’s Tour. That puts added pressure on stage 5’s time trial to Caen, where Evenepoel will look to grab yellow and build an early buffer.

Primož Roglič / Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe / 35 years

Tour participations: 6
Top-results: 2nd (2020), 4th (2019)

With four Vuelta wins and a Giro title, Primož Roglič is one of the most accomplished Grand Tour racers of his era. But one race still eludes him: the Tour de France. And ironically, it’s this dream that now carries the biggest question mark—about both his form and intent.

At the Giro d’Italia, he briefly reminded everyone of his class in the time trials—but over longer climbs, we’re still left guessing. Even his goals at the Giro remained vague. “I try to do my best” was his go-to line. While his team spoke of targeting the maglia rosa, coach Marc Lamberts hinted it was more about racing into form. After crashing out, Roglič vanished—no Dauphiné, no Tour de Suisse. Only now has he resurfaced at altitude, training on the Col de la Loze.

Fans expecting a strong climbing squad were in for a surprise. Apart from Florian Lipowitz—initially seen as a free agent—and Alexander Vlasov, there’s little climbing support. The plan? Get through the chaotic first 10 days safely, then hope for the best in the mountains. It’s a risky bet, especially since Vlasov struggled at the Tour de Suisse and Lipowitz lacks experience in a domestique role.

Felix Gall / Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team / 27 years

Tour participations: 2
Top-results: 8th (2023)

Felix Gall might have flown under the radar early in the season, but his Tour de Suisse performance made a clear statement. Despite missing the breakaway on stage one and playing catch-up from then on, he still managed to finish fourth overall. Stage by stage, the Austrian got stronger—and only João Almeida bested him in the decisive mountain time trial. Not bad for someone coming straight off an altitude training camp.

With rising French star Paul Seixas not selected for the Tour, Gall steps into the captain’s role. He’s the designated leader for the mountains—a role he earned after a breakout Tour debut in 2023, where he conquered the legendary Col de la Loze and secured eighth overall. Now more experienced and confident, Gall believes in more.

“If everything goes to plan, a top-five finish is realistic. As a team, we’re going in with a focus on the GC,” he told ORF: https://sport.orf.at/stories/3142808/

Carlos Rodriguez / Ineos Genadiers / 24 years

Tour participations: 2
Top-results: 5th (2023), 7th 2024)

Carlos Rodríguez is set to lead Ineos Grenadiers at the 2025 Tour de France. The talented Spaniard, already a two-time Tour top-ten finisher—5th in 2023 and 7th in 2024—has become a picture of Grand Tour consistency.

His breakthrough came in summer 2023, when he dropped both Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard on the descent of the Col de Joux Plane and claimed a thrilling stage win in Morzine. That performance cemented his status as the future of Spanish cycling—an opinion long shared by none other than Alberto Contador.

While Rodríguez hasn’t secured any marquee wins in 2025, his sixth-place finish at the Tour de Romandie and ninth at the Dauphiné were solid showings. He may not yet be in peak form, but his track record is impressive: four Grand Tours, four top-ten finishes.

With no clear podium favorite in their ranks, Ineos will be banking on strength in numbers. Veteran Geraint Thomas will race his final Tour, though a crash at the Tour de Suisse leaves his role uncertain. Rodríguez will count on mountain support from Laurens De Plus, Michal Kwiatkowski, Tobias Foss, and likely Thymen Arensman.

Oscar Onley / Picnic Post NL / 22 years,

Tour participations: 1
Top-results: –

Oscar Onley is one of the “young guns” rising through the ranks of Iwan Spekenbrink’s squad, alongside the likes of Max Poole, Tobias Lund Andresen, Pavel Bittner, and Caspar van Uden. His recent breakout at the Tour de Suisse—with a stage win and a third-place finish overall—may have caught some off guard, but to those tracking his career, it felt like a natural next step.

Now in his third year at WorldTour level, Onley has already shown flashes of brilliance. In 2024, he claimed a stage at the Tour Down Under and stood on the podium at the GP Indurain. He opened 2025 with an impressive fifth-place overall finish at the UAE Tour.

After his performance in Switzerland, Onley downplayed expectations, saying his goal for the Tour de France would be to chase stage wins. But there’s reason to believe that’s not the whole story. With his climbing pedigree and improving consistency, the Scot could well be aiming for a top-ten finish in the GC—something that would earn his team critical UCI points in the relegation battle.

Onley is a lightweight climber who copes well with accelerations on steep gradients. His biggest test will be surviving the first, flatter week of racing and limiting losses in the opening time trial. If he manages that, a spot in the top ten is firmly within reach—and on a great day, even the top five isn’t out of the question.

Enric Mas / Movistar / 30 years

Tour participations: 6
Top-results: 5th (2020), 6th (2021)

Enric Mas has quietly built a reputation as one of the most reliable Grand Tour riders of the last decade. While the Tour de France hasn’t yet delivered a career-defining result, he remains a trusted name when it comes to consistency and resilience. In 2025, the Spaniard will start his seventh Tour. He’s twice finished in the top six (5th in 2020, 6th in 2021), though his recent record includes DNFs in 2022 and 2023 due to crashes, and a disappointing 19th in 2024.

Mas might not dazzle with explosive attacks, but his ability to grind through three weeks with minimal time loss is unmatched by many. He’s a podium regular at the Vuelta a España—runner-up in 2018, 2021, and 2022, and third in 2024—and only missed the top ten three times in his thirteen Grand Tour starts.

In 2025, Mas has shown solid form, finishing on the podium in Catalunya and the Basque Country. While seventh at the Dauphiné wasn’t his best showing—especially after losing over a minute in the time trial—he hung with the top GC riders on the climbs. With only one flat time trial and a brutal final week, this Tour route could finally play into Mas’s strengths.

Joao Almeida / UAE Team Emirates-XRG / 26 years

Tour participations: 1
Top-results: 4th (2024)

João Almeida might not be the loudest name in the UAE Team Emirates-XRG lineup, but the 26-year-old Portuguese rider has become a pillar of strength for Tadej Pogačar—especially in the mountains. Just like in 2024, he’s back as the team’s key climbing lieutenant. And just like last year, he could do more than support: Almeida finished fourth overall at the Tour de France in 2024, without ever being the center of attention.

That’s the beauty of Almeida. Quietly, consistently, he delivers—and wins. His 2025 season has been nothing short of brilliant: he’s won the Tour de Romandie, Itzulia Basque Country, and most recently, the Tour de Suisse, where he took three stage victories and clawed his way to overall victory with calculated strength.

Known for his time trial prowess and steady climbing, Almeida rarely follows the first accelerations in the mountains—but he doesn’t panic. He paces his way back, often dragging rivals with him, or setting a tempo that kills attacks before they begin. In short: if Pogačar falters, Almeida will be ready.

Matteo Jorgenson / Team Visma | Lease a Bike / 26 years

Tour participations: 3
Top-results: 8th (2024)

Matteo Jorgenson doesn’t come to the Tour as the star of Team Visma | Lease a Bike—but he might end up being one. With Jonas Vingegaard’s form still uncertain, Jorgenson is the clear Plan B. And what a strong backup option he is: the 26-year-old American finished eighth overall last year and has since won Paris–Nice for the second year in a row—with authority.

Jorgenson is no featherweight climber. At 1.90 m, he’s built more like a classics specialist than a mountain goat. But that’s exactly what makes him so valuable. He’s a resilient, tactically clever all-rounder who thrives in chaos—be it crosswinds, downhill attacks, or messy positioning battles.

He also packs a punch: third in the Dauphiné time trial, ahead of several GC stars, and always lurking on the punchy uphill finishes. Whether he’s shielding Vingegaard alongside van Aert and Benoot, or chasing a result of his own, Jorgenson is a rider to watch—especially if the Tour throws up surprises.

Florian Lipowitz / Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe / 24 years

Tour participations: –
Top-results: –

Florian Lipowitz isn’t a household name—yet. But the 23-year-old German from Red Bull–Bora–hansgrohe could be the breakout GC story of the Tour de France 2025. Once a promising biathlete, Lipowitz has turned into a high-altitude engine capable of hanging with the best in the mountains.

In 2025, he’s quietly pieced together a world-class résumé: runner-up at Paris–Nice, 4th in the Basque Country, and 3rd at the Critérium du Dauphiné—beating Evenepoel to the white jersey. Despite calling himself a super-domestique for Primož Roglič, the signs suggest he could step up if needed.

Lipowitz still lacks Grand Tour depth—his only GC top result is 7th at the Vuelta—but what he’s shown so far is serious. If he handles the chaos of the first week and avoids a third-week crash in form, he could finish in the top five or ten. Quiet, focused, and powerful: this underdog has teeth.

Mattias Skjelmose/ Lidl-Trek / 24 years

Tour participations: 1
Top-results: –

Matthias Skjelmose was Giro-bound—until team plans shifted. Now the 24-year-old Dane heads into the Tour de France as GC leader for Lidl–Trek, with hopes of building on his fifth-place finish at the 2024 Vuelta. But unlike some of his rivals, Skjelmose won’t have a full team of mountain domestiques. He’ll be sharing the spotlight with sprinter Jonathan Milan and punchy stage hunter Thibau Nys.

The lead-up to the Tour has been a mixed bag. A brilliant Amstel Gold Race victory was followed by a DNF at Flèche Wallonne and a rough day at Liège. Illness then forced him to withdraw from both the Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse, leaving question marks around his form. A recent win at the MoraBanc Clàssica in Andorra showed some spark, but it’s hard to gauge what that means for a three-week Tour.

If healthy, Skjelmose has the talent for a top-10 finish—but everything will hinge on how he handles the mountains with limited support.

Tobias Halland Johannessen / Uno X Mobility / 25 years

Tour participations: 2
Top-results: –

He’s the underdog with serious bite: Tobias Halland Johannessen isn’t just flying the Uno-X flag at this year’s Tour—he’s their GC hope. The 24-year-old Norwegian impressed at the Critérium du Dauphiné, finishing 5th overall and even outclimbing big names like Evenepoel on the brutal Valmeinier 1800 stage.

His performance spoke volumes. And if you exclude the time lost in the ITT, Johannessen might’ve even ended ahead of the Belgian in GC.

Already a two-time Tour finisher, Johannessen has long shown promise in the high mountains. His Tour de l’Avenir win in 2021 hinted at big things—and now, three years later, he could deliver a historic top-ten finish for Uno-X Mobility.