{"id":115730,"date":"2026-02-26T16:04:51","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T15:04:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alpecincycling.com\/tour-de-france-2026-fab-four-episode-1-who-can-beat-tadej-pogacar\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T09:41:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T08:41:47","slug":"tour-de-france-2026-fab-four-episode-1-who-can-beat-tadej-pogacar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alpecincycling.com\/en\/pro-peloton\/tour-de-france-2026-fab-four-episode-1-who-can-beat-tadej-pogacar\/","title":{"rendered":"Tour de France 2026: Fab Four \u2013 Episode 1 | Who Can Beat Tadej Poga\u010dar?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Tour de France is the most important race \u2013 the big highlight of the season. Whoever wears the Yellow Jersey in Paris in July writes sporting history. That’s why Alpecin Cycling is following the Fab Four 2026 on the road to the Tour start on July 4 in Barcelona: the four riders who \u2013 as of today \u2013 have the most realistic chances of winning the general classification. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tadej Poga\u010dar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Florian Lipowitz \u2013 the battle for Yellow will likely be shaped by these four exceptional athletes. At the same time, these “Fab Four” will meet for the first time this season at the Tour de France. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our Fab Four series, Bernd Landwehr, editor-in-chief of Cyclingmagazine, follows the four top favorites on their journey to the Grand Depart of the Tour de France. He analyzes their preparation, evaluates their performances, and creates a “Tour Barometer of the Fab Four.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Episode 1 is both the opening and a status check. Tadej Poga\u010dar is chasing his fifth Tour victory. Jonas Vingegaard is going all-in on the Giro-Tour double and wants to triumph at two Grand Tours. Remco Evenepoel is launching an attack on Yellow in his new environment at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe \u2013 with maximum ambition but also maximum pressure. And Florian Lipowitz must prove after his 2025 podium finish that it wasn’t a fluke but the beginning of a steep career trajectory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tadej Poga\u010dar \u2013 The Hunt for the Record<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tadej Poga\u010dar has already won four Tour victories; with number five, he would join the record holders. The discussion about whether Poga\u010dar should be placed on the same level as legend Eddy Merckx is being answered with a clear yes by more and more experts. The Slovenian is by far the best cyclist of his generation, one of the best and most successful of all time. What Poga\u010dar has achieved is on the level of Merckx, even if the sheer number of the “Cannibal’s” victories is unattainable in modern cycling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poga\u010dar is the first rider to finish all cycling Monuments on the podium in one season, was the first rider to win a Monument five times in a row \u2013 the Tour of Lombardy. Not many boxes are left unchecked on his bucket list. The fifth Tour victory, which would put him level with record holders Miguel Indur\u00e1in, Bernard Hinault, Jacques Anquetil, and Eddy Merckx, is set to happen in summer 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reduced Race Program Before the Tour de France<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even Tadej Poga\u010dar isn’t immune to the strain. At the end of the 2025 Tour de France, he looked tired and tormented. In week three of the 2025 Tour, his race seemed to hang by a thread \u2013 a knee injury plagued him, the race brought him no joy, and allegedly he was even close to quitting. At least that’s what teammates said in the fall. Either way \u2013 he brought Yellow to Paris, delivered, and secured the victory. Afterward, he needed a break but then came back incredibly strong. Looking at his 2026 season plan, it’s clear that Poga\u010dar is being given breaks in preparation and won’t be burdened with too many races. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His classics program is selected \u2013 Strade Bianche to start, then Milan-San Remo \u2013 one of the two Monuments still missing from his palmares. Then the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix \u2013 the second missing Monument. In terms of one-day races, he’ll only compete in Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge. Five races in the entire spring classics season! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plus possibly the Tour de Romandie at the end of April \u2013 one of the few WorldTour races Poga\u010dar has never competed in. After that, the provisional plan until the Tour de France includes only the Tour de Suisse. Poga\u010dar hasn’t started there either. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only once has Tadej Poga\u010dar started the season as late as planned this year. That was in 2024. Back then, his first race was also Strade Bianche. The circumstances were different because he condensed the spring to combine the Giro d’Italia and Tour. The plan worked. He won both stage races! Then grabbed his first World Championship title in late summer and won the Monument in Lombardy. It seems Team UAE knows how to manage the workload. And they also know that a healthy and motivated Tadej Poga\u010dar in top form at the Tour de France is unbeatable. He’s the top favorite, but even for him, it’s not a sure thing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
\u00a9 Stefan Rachow \/ mr. pinko<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Jonas Vingegaard \u2013 Giro Momentum for the Tour Title?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jonas Vingegaard will start the season even later than Poga\u010dar. Originally, a start at the UAE Tour was planned \u2013 where he would have also faced Remco Evenepoel. But Vingegaard crashed in training and will now skip the UAE Tour. He’ll likely return to racing at the Tour of Catalonia at the end of March. The week-long stage race in Catalonia will presumably be the only one in the first quarter of 2026 \u2013 because Jonas Vingegaard is aiming for the Giro-Tour double in 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May, Vingegaard wants to complete his Grand Tour collection in Italy \u2013 winning the Italian tour after the Tour and Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a. Then in July, he wants to challenge Tadej Poga\u010dar at the Tour. Ambitious, because for many years the Giro-Tour double was simply considered impossible in modern cycling, until Tadej Poga\u010dar proved otherwise in 2024. Can Vingegaard repeat that? At least there are doubts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the Visma-Lease-a-Bike team, the Tour is the most important race. Victory in France stands above all other goals. And Jonas Vingegaard is the only rider on the team who has already achieved this against Poga\u010dar. That Vingegaard might care somewhat more about the Giro than the Tour is understandable. He has repeatedly given the impression of not wanting to continue his career endlessly, wanting to minimize risk after experiences with terrible crashes and injuries. Victory at the Italian tour is still missing from his palmares \u2013 a gap he’d like to close. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His team is trying to convey that they’re not putting the Giro above the Tour. They want to avoid the feeling that they’re choosing the Giro because they see no chance against Poga\u010dar at the Tour. Recently, they’ve repeatedly stated that the Giro can be good for building toward the Tour, with Vingegaard reaching absolute peak level in July. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That may be physiologically true. But a Grand Tour is also a real mental challenge. People like to point out that Vingegaard has already successfully combined the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a in the past. Ex-pros like Simon Geschke, who were part of the peloton for many years and combined the Giro and Tour themselves, are skeptical. “The Giro-Tour double is something else,” Geschke writes in one of his season theses on Cyclingmagazine. “The double burden of Giro and Tour is tough, I experienced it firsthand. While I was certainly never a rider at Jonas Vingegaard’s level, this isn’t just about physical performance and workload. If you want to be in the best possible form at both the Giro and Tour, it means a brutal first half of the season, with sacrifices and extreme focus,” says Geschke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As understandable as the Giro start is, his race schedule puts other riders in the favorite role for the Tour de France. Or can the Dane surprise and silence doubters and skeptics? It will be exciting to watch. That he had to postpone his season debut after the probably not too serious training crash shouldn’t be a big deal looking toward summer. But the buildup for the Giro could suffer somewhat. And if “Project Giro” goes wrong, it probably won’t get any easier at the Tour. But there’s still a long way to go! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remco Evenepoel \u2013 Wings for the Tour Victory<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Remco Evenepoel has switched to Team Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe. Finally, one might almost say, because the German team and manager Ralph Denk had been courting the Belgian for several years. Quite understandable, because the double Olympic champion, Vuelta winner, Monument champion, and World Champion is considered a potential Tour winner. Red Bull’s money made the transfer possible, and Evenepoel hopes the infrastructure and strong support team will give him wings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The possibilities at the new team seem unlimited: wind tunnel testing, equipment improvements, optimal athlete support, extensive staff, and an incredibly strong support team. In the new environment, Evenepoel sees the chance to extract those final percentages \u2013 to reduce the gap to Poga\u010dar \u2013 to close it in the medium term. The big goal is the Tour victory \u2013 that’s why Evenepoel went to Red Bull and why Red Bull signed Evenepoel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides the Tour, Evenepoel should also perform in the spring classics. His race program reveals it’s a classic season plan up to the Tour: early races, first peak at the classics, break, then buildup for the Tour. Not an unusual plan! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
\u00a9 Stefan Rachow \/ mr. pinko<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The start was excellent! Four races, four victories. Including the team time trial at the Mallorca Challenge \u2013 a test run for the Tour de France, which also opens with a team time trial. Notable in the first races \u2013 Evenepoel seems to lead the team well and the teamwork seems to fit. Even if it’s just a first impression and the important and much stronger races are still to come \u2013 Evenepoel seems to have settled in well with the team. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the UAE Tour, the Belgian would have faced Tour rival Jonas Vingegaard \u2013 but after Vingegaard’s crash injury, the first showdown is off. Or rather, postponed to the Tour of Catalonia. Vingegaard will hopefully be there then. Florian Lipowitz’s start is also planned \u2013 so three of the “Fab Four” would be at the start and the cycling world will watch closely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evenepoel will then start at the Ardennes classics \u2013 perhaps even the entire Ardennes triple with Amstel Gold Race, Fl\u00e8che Wallonne, and Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge. In Li\u00e8ge, he’ll face Tadej Poga\u010dar \u2013 the next status check! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the break and then the Tour Auvergne-Rh\u00f4ne-Alpes \u2013 formerly Crit\u00e9rium du Dauphin\u00e9 \u2013 as final preparation for the Tour. A classic program for the Tour de France highlight. Together with Florian Lipowitz, he probably won’t race again after the Tour of Catalonia until the Tour. The two have already had plenty of time to get to know each other in training camps and in Mallorca. The team will do everything to forge them into a solid unit. If that succeeds, the team’s chances of Tour victory increase. You can be successful together, but only one rider gets the Yellow Jersey. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florian Lipowitz \u2013 Confirming the Performance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With his sensational performance at the 2025 Tour, Florian Lipowitz not only won the hearts of many cycling fans but also moved into the extended circle of favorites for the 2026 Tour victory. Lipowitz has the potential to one day win the Tour de France \u2013 experts agree on that. But on the path to the absolute world elite, “Lipo” still has some way to go. Winning the White Jersey and finishing third overall was a huge success, but the gap to Poga\u010dar at 11 minutes was still quite large. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
\u00a9 Stefan Rachow \/ mr. pinko<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For Florian Lipowitz, it’s about confirming the good performance from 2025. Getting through the buildup without problems again, arriving at the Tour without illness or crash. That was the foundation for his great Tour last year and it will be the same this year. Additionally, Lipowitz still has a lot to learn if he wants to truly challenge Poga\u010dar and Vingegaard. Tactics, riding skills, and also within the team structure. His team wants to provide him with all the support needed for him to take the next step. Perhaps it’s mainly patience that’s needed. And races. Even though Remco Evenepoel is also considered a lateral entrant \u2013 in terms of cycling experience, the Belgian has quite a bit on the German. This shows in the palmares \u2013 and also in the races. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florian Lipowitz’s race schedule is focused on the Tour de France. He’ll complete a manageable program until summer. Opening in the Algarve, at the quite demanding stage race, where he’ll face really strong competition! Then the Tour of Catalonia together with Evenepoel. At the Tour de Romandie at the end of April, Lipowitz might face Tadej Poga\u010dar. In preparation for the Tour de France, the Tour of Slovenia is probably also planned. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dual Leadership with Remco Evenepoel at the Tour<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the Tour, Red Bull is going with the dual leadership of Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz. The offensive Belgian, the reserved German \u2013 could that also be the race plan? The Tour is still far away, even though it’s less than five months until the start in Barcelona. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If everything goes according to plan, Florian Lipowitz will arrive at the Tour with 23 race days under his belt \u2013 last year it was one more. But back then, the races with Paris-Nice, Tour of the Basque Country, and Dauphin\u00e9 were significantly harder and more prestigious! Last year, those races were also about Lipowitz finding his feet in the role of team leader. In that regard, he should have learned important lessons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What’s the plan behind this year’s program? Are they choosing a different path to the Tour this year to prepare undisturbed and with full focus on the July highlight? We’ll see! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Professional Cycling Expert: Bernd Landwehr<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
\u00a9 Marcel Hilger<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n

Journalist Bernd Landwehr, born in 1978, is the founder and editor-in-chief of the digital cycling magazine Cyclingmagazine<\/a> and host of the podcast of the same name. The graduate media scientist is considered an expert on the professional cycling scene. In recent years, he has also written for various cycling publications, including Roadbike and Procycling magazines. His favorite races include the Flemish classics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n